It is expected that the prospect of optical communication in 2013 will be better than 2012

      Xīnnián yīshǐ, xùn shí quánqiú guāng tōngxùn shìchǎng dòngtài yuè bào yī'èr yuè hé kān yǐ tuīchū, tíxǐng gè huìyuán cháshōu. Běn yuè yuèkān tuīchū de zhuāntí wèi:2013 Nián guāng tōngxìn qiánjǐng fēnxī. Cóng zhěngtǐ céngmiàn, céng céng pōuxī jīnnián guāng tōngxìn de zhěngtǐ shìchǎng hángqíng, yùjì 2013 guāng tōngxìn qiánjǐng jiāng hǎoguò 2012 nián.2013 Nián yùnyíng shāng zīběn kāizhī jiāng kuòdà,2013 nián shèbèi shāng duì qiánjǐng biǎoshì lèguān,2013 nián qìjiàn shāng jiāng shòuyì yú diànxìn kāizhī zēngzhǎng.

        2013 Nián quánqiú yùnyíng shāng diànxìn zīběn kāizhī jiāng kuòdà, cóng mùqián yǐjīng gōngbù de jì huá kāizhī kěyǐ kàn chū, rú ōuzhōu déguó diànxìn, fàguó diànxìn hé wòdáfēng, měiguó de AT&T,Verizon hé T-Mobile, zhōngguó de zhōngguó yídòng hé zhōngguó diànxìn děng. Jù Gartner yùjì,2013 nián quánqiú yùnyíng shāng diànxìn wǎngluò shèbèi cǎigòu liàng jiāng zēngzhǎng dá 790 yì měiyuán. Huá wéi zhōngxìng jūn biǎo duì 2013 nián hángyè qiánjǐng biǎoshì lèguān, qìjiàn shāng JDSU,Finisar děng yě duì 2013 nián chōngmǎnle xìnxīn, zì 2013 nián 2 yuèfèn kāishǐ, gǔjià yīlù biāoshēng.
Yùnyíng shāng 2013 nián zīběn kāizhī jiāng kuòdà
        yùnyíng shāng 2013 nián zīběn kāizhī jiāng huì kuòdà, cóng mùqián gōngbù de lái kàn, guówài yùnyíng shāng zhōng, déguó diànxìn jìhuà zīběn kāizhī jiāng dá 300 yì ōuyuán (407 yì měiyuán); měiguó AT&T chéngnuò zài wúxiàn hé yǒuxiàn shàng tóurù 140 yì měiyuán kuòjiàn wǎngluò. Guónèi fāngmiàn, zhōngguó yídòng yùjì dádào 1950 yì měiyuán, zhōngguó diànxìn jiāng dá 760 yì yuán, zhōngguó liántōng zé jiāng xiàtiáo dào 790 yì yuán zuǒyòu.
2013 Nián quánqiú diànxìn shèbèi cǎigòu liàng huò jiāng zēngzhǎng
        shìchǎng tiáo yán gōngsī Gartner yùjì 2013 nián de quánqiú yùnyíng shāng wǎngluò shèbèi cǎigòu liàng jiāng zēngzhǎng 2.3%, Zhì 790 yì měiyuán.Gartner yùjì, běiměi hé lāměi jiāng zēngzhǎng 4%, yàzhōu (rìběn chúwài) jiāng zēngzhǎng 3.6%, Ōuzhōu shìchǎng de tóuzī réngrán zhǐbù bù qián. Zài zhōngguó shìchǎng, mùqián suīrán zhǐyǒu zhòng guó yídòng xuānbùle LTE míngquè tóuzī guīhuà, dàn qí wǎngluò guīmó què shì bù yán ér yù de, zhōngguó yídòng jìhuà zài 2013 nián wánchéng bù shǎo yú 20 wàn gè TD-LTE jīzhàn jiànshè.
Wǔdà shèbèi shāng zhōng sì jiā jūn jiàowéi lèguān
        huáwèi hé zhōngxìng kànhǎo 2013 nián hángyè jǐngqì jiāng huíshēng: Huáwèi 2012 nián yíng shōu hé jìng lìrùn jūn shíxiànle zēngzhǎng, zhōngxìng 2012 nián jìng lìrùn kuīsǔn jiào dà, dàn liǎng dà guónèi dà shèbèi jūn biǎoshì 2013 nián hángyè jǐngqì jiāng huíshēng, zhōngxìng yùjì 2013 nián yī jìdù jiù kěyǐ shíxiàn yínglì. Qí yuányīn zàiyú zhōngguó yídòng 2013 nián 4G jiāng qǐdòng guīmó huà jiànshè, yùjì TD-LTE jīzhàn jiànshè jiāng dá 20 wàn tái, hángyè gùdìng zīchǎn tóuzī yǒuwàng tóngbǐ zēngjiā yuè 15%. Ér huáwèi, zhōngxìng zé zài 4G lǐngyù guǎngfàn bùjú. Huáwèi mùqián yǐ huòdé chāoguò 130 gè LTE shāngyòng wǎngluò, zhōngxìng zài quánqiú bùshǔle 100 duō zhāng LTE shāngyòng jí shìyòng wǎngluò.
        Àilìxìn hé nuòxī biǎoxiàn lèguān: Àilìxìn zǒngcái jiān CEO wèi hàn sī rènwéi diànxìn shèbèi shìchǎng méiyǒu “tiānhuābǎn”, yīnwèi chángyuǎn lái jiǎng,ICT shì zhěnggè shèhuì zuì zhòngyào de jīchǔ shèshī. Nuòxī 2012 nián lìrùn fānle sān fān, niǔzhuǎnle zǎoqí kuīsǔn, nuòxī dà zhōngguó qū zǒngcái mǎ bó cè biǎoshì 2013 nián dà zhōngguó qū zuì zhòngyào de gōngzuò jiùshì TD-LTE.
        Ā lǎng yù dào qiánsuǒwèiyǒu de kùnnán: Ā lǎng kuīsǔn yánzhòng, wèi chánghuán jù'é dàikuǎn, chūshòule zhàn quánqiú 40%fèn'é dì hǎidǐ diànlǎn yèwù, ér zhè yī yèwù de lìrùn lǜ gāo yú ā lǎng píngjūn lìrùn lǜ shuǐpíng. Ā lǎng xiànrèn CEO jiāng lízhí, dǒngshì zhǎng xīwàng xúnqiú liánrèn yǔ xīnrèn CEO yīqǐ niǔzhuǎn ā lǎng tuíshì.

2013 Nián qìjiàn shāng jiāng shòuyì yú diànxìn kāizhī zēngzhǎng
        qìjiàn chǎngshāng fāngmiàn,2012Q4 guówài qìjiàn shāngyèjī pǔbiàn jiào hǎo,Oclaro 2012Q4 yíng shōu tóngbǐ wēi jiàng,JDSU 2012Q4 yíng shōu tóngbǐ zēng 12.7%,Oplink 2012Q4 yíng shōu tóngbǐ wēi zēng,AFOP 2012Q4 yíng shōu tóngbǐ zēngzhǎng 20%.JDSU duì 2013 nián guāng tōngxìn shìchǎng xìnxīn mǎnhuái. Yī fāngmiàn shì yóuyú kànzhǎng guāng wǎngluò, kànhǎo jīnnián diànxìn shìchǎng xūqiú de fùsū; lìng yī fāngmiàn shì JDSU guāng tōngxìn cèshì hé qìjiàn chǎnpǐn běnshēn suǒ jùyǒu de shílì.JDSU de CCOP(tōngxìn hé shāng yè guāng chǎnpǐn) zǒngjiān biǎoshì, suízhe yùnyíng shāng zài 2013 nián de bùshǔ zhōng jiàng JDSU nàrù OEM kèhù (rú Ciena), wéi qí dìngzhì chǎnpǐn, rú TrueFlex ROADMs hé Super TransportBlades,JDSU zài guāng tōngxìn fāngmiàn yǒu gèng duō de zìxìn.
        Lìngwài,Finisar jiàng zài 2013 nián niǔzhuǎn júmiàn. Jìnqí Finisar biǎoxiàn yīzhí bùcuò, zài shìchǎng shōusuō de qíngkuàng xià tíshēng xiāoshòu shōurù biǎomíng Finisar shìchǎng fèn'é zài kuòzhāng. Cǐwài,Finisar zài chǎnpǐn zǔhé yōuhuà fāngmiàn jìnzhǎn xùnsù. Qí Flexgrid WSS chǎnpǐn chū huò liàng pānshēng bìngqiě dédào kèhù yīzhì hǎopíng.LTE wǎngluò de bùshǔ yùjì jiāng jìnyībù qūdòng qí wúxiàn yèwù de zēngzhǎng, tóngshí yún jìsuàn de zēngzhǎng yě jiāng wéi qí shùjù tōngxìn yèwù tígōng dònglì. Sīkē shì duì Finisar xiāoshòu shōurù gòngxiàn chāoguò 10%de kèhù, yīncǐ sīkē zài yún fāngmiàn de dàliàng tóuzī yě jiāng shǐ Finisar shòuyì fěi qiǎn.

Guāng tōngxìn miànlín de tiǎozhàn: Róngliàng yǔ lìrùn wéijī
        chéngrán kàn dào jījí miàn de tóngshí, yě xūyào kàn dào guāng tōngxìn miànlín de tiǎozhàn, zhǔyào shi róngliàng yǔ lìrùn wéijī. Zhōngguó diànxìn kējì wěi zhǔrèn wéi lèpíng wèi yènèi jiěshìle “róngliàng wéijī”, jí guāng tōngxìn róngliàng zēng sù yǐjīng dàdà luòhòu yú hùliánwǎng liúliàng de zēng sù. Rán'ér bǐ “róngliàng wéijī” gèngjiā wéixiǎn de yǒu “lìrùn wéijī”: Duìyú yùnyíng shāng ér yán, shēngjí wǎngluò de chéngběn bìng bùshì yī bǐ xiǎo shùmù, dànshì, shēngjí wǎngluò hòu de yíngyè shōurù bìng méiyǒu tóng bǐlì zēngzhǎng.“Lìrùn wéijī” jiāng suízhe duì dàikuān yǒu gèng gāo yāoqiú de zhūrú yún jìsuàn yèwù de zēng cháng ér jìxù èhuà. Wèile shōuhuí tóuzī, yùnyíng shāng xūyào gèngjiā línghuó hé yǒuxiào de lái lìyòng chuánshū wǎngluò. Wèile jiàngdī chéngběn, yùnyíng shāng xūyào bùshǔ gèngjiā jiénéng hé xiǎoxíng de chuánshū shèbèi. Yīncǐ, wèilái de guāng tōngxìn wǎngluò shèbèi jiāng xiàngzhe gèng kuài, gèng yǒuxiào, gèng línghuó hé gèng jiénéng de fāngxiàng bùduàn fāzhǎn.
        Wèilái guāng tōngxìn wǎngluò shèbèi xiàngzhe sì dà fāngxiàng fāzhǎn, zhǔyào biǎoxiàn gèng kuài: Yìwèizhe xūyào yǐnjìn gèng gāo de xiànlù sùlǜ, bǐrú xiànzài zhìshǒukěrè de 100G hé wèilái de 400G,1T děng xiānggān chuánshū jìshù. Gèng yǒuxiào: Yìwèizhe xiànlù dàikuān gèngjiā yǒuxiào de bèi lìyòng. Gèng línghuó: Bùjǐn yìwèizhe yèwù bǎohù xūyào gèngjiā línghuó, xìtǒng pèizhì yě xūyào gèngjiā línghuó. Gèng jiénéng: Yìwèizhe jì bāokuò chuánshū píngtái jiénéng, yě bāokuò zǔ wǎng fāngshì shàng de géxīn.
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At the beginning of the new year, the newsletter of the global optical communication market newsletter in January and February has been launched, reminding all members to check. The topic of this month's monthly magazine is: 2013 optical communication prospect analysis. From the overall level, the overall market situation of optical communication this year is analyzed at the same level. It is expected that the prospect of optical communication in 2013 will be better than that in 2012. In 2013, the capital expenditure of operators will expand. In 2013, equipment manufacturers are optimistic about the prospects. In 2013, device vendors will benefit from the growth of telecom expenses.

        In 2013, global carrier telecom capital expenditure will expand, as can be seen from the current announced program expenses, such as Deutsche Telekom, France Telecom and Vodafone, AT&T, Verizon and T-Mobile in the US, China Mobile and China Telecom in China, etc. . According to Gartner, the global carrier telecommunications network equipment purchases will increase by $79 billion in 2013. Huawei ZTE is optimistic about the industry outlook in 2013. Device vendors JDSU and Finisar are also full of confidence in 2013. Since February 2013, the stock price has soared.
Operators' capital expenditure will expand in 2013
        The capital expenditure of operators will expand in 2013. From the current announcement, Deutsche Telekom plans to spend 30 billion euros ($40.7 billion) in foreign telecom operators; AT&T is committed to invest 14 billion dollars in wireless and cable. Expand the network. Domestically, China Mobile is expected to reach 195 billion US dollars, China Telecom will reach 76 billion yuan, China Unicom will be reduced to about 790 billion yuan.
Global telecom equipment purchases may grow in 2013
        Market research firm Gartner expects global carrier network equipment purchases to grow 2.3% in 2013 to $79 billion. Gartner expects North America and Latin America to grow by 4%, and Asia (excluding Japan) to grow by 3.6%, and investment in the European market is still stalling. In the Chinese market, although only China Mobile has announced a clear investment plan for LTE, its network size is self-evident. China Mobile plans to complete no less than 200,000 TD-LTE base stations in 2013.
Four of the top five equipment vendors are more optimistic
        Huawei and ZTE are optimistic that the industry will rebound in 2013: Huawei's revenue and net profit have increased in 2012. ZTE's net profit in 2012 was relatively large, but the two major domestic equipments indicated that the industry will rebound in 2013. ZTE expects Earnings can be achieved in the first quarter of 2013. The reason is that China Mobile will start large-scale construction in 4G in 2013. It is estimated that TD-LTE base station construction will reach 200,000 units, and industry fixed asset investment is expected to increase by 15% year-on-year. Huawei and ZTE are widely deployed in the 4G field. Huawei has acquired more than 130 LTE commercial networks, and ZTE has deployed more than 100 LTE commercial and trial networks around the world.
        Ericsson and Noci are optimistic: Ericsson president and CEO Wei Hansi believes that there is no “ceiling” in the telecom equipment market, because in the long run, ICT is the most important infrastructure of the whole society. Noci's 2012 profit tripled and reversed early losses. Ma Boce, president of Noci Greater China, said that the most important job in Greater China in 2013 was TD-LTE.
        Alang encountered unprecedented difficulties: Alang suffered a serious loss, and in order to repay huge loans, he sold a submarine cable business with a global share of 40%, and the profit margin of this business is higher than the average margin of Alang. The current CEO of Alang will leave, and the chairman hopes to seek re-election to reversing Alan with the new CEO.

Device vendors will benefit from telecom spending growth in 2013
        In terms of device manufacturers, the performance of foreign device vendors in 2012Q4 was generally good. The revenue of Oclaro 2012Q4 decreased slightly year-on-year. The revenue of JDSU 2012Q4 increased by 12.7% year-on-year. The revenue of Oplink 2012Q4 increased slightly year-on-year. The revenue of AFOP 2012Q4 increased by 20%. JDSU is full of confidence in the optical communication market in 2013. On the one hand, it is due to the bullish optical network, optimistic about the recovery of demand in the telecom market this year; on the other hand, the strength of JDSU optical communication test and device products themselves. JDSU's CCOP (communication and commercial optical products) director said that as operators in the 2013 deployment of JDSU into OEM customers (such as Ciena), customized products such as TrueFlex ROADMs and Super TransportBlades, JDSU in optical communications Have more confidence.
        In addition, Finisar will reverse the situation in 2013. Finisar's performance has been good recently, and the increase in sales revenue in the case of market contraction indicates that Finisar's market share is expanding. In addition, Finisar is progressing rapidly in product portfolio optimization. Its Flexgrid WSS product shipments climbed and received high praise from customers. The deployment of LTE networks is expected to further drive the growth of its wireless services, while the growth of cloud computing will also power its data communications services. Cisco is a customer that contributes more than 10% of Finisar's sales revenue, so Cisco's massive investment in the cloud will also benefit Finisar.

The challenge of optical communication: capacity and profit crisis
        While seeing the positive side, we also need to see the challenges of optical communication, mainly the capacity and profit crisis. Wei Leping, director of the China Telecom Science and Technology Commission, explained the “capacity crisis” for the industry, that is, the growth rate of optical communication capacity has lagged far behind the growth of Internet traffic. However, there is a “profit crisis” that is more dangerous than the “capacity crisis”: for operators, the cost of upgrading the network is not a small amount, but the operating income after upgrading the network does not increase in the same proportion. The “profit crisis” will continue to deteriorate with the growth of cloud computing services with higher bandwidth requirements. In order to recover the investment, operators need to use the transmission network more flexibly and effectively. In order to reduce costs, operators need to deploy more energy-efficient and small transmission equipment. Therefore, future optical communication network equipment will continue to develop in a direction that is faster, more efficient, more flexible, and more energy efficient.
        In the future, optical communication network equipment will develop in four directions, with the main performance being faster: it means that higher line rates need to be introduced, such as the now hot 100G and future 400G, 1T and other coherent transmission technologies. More efficient: means that line bandwidth is more efficiently utilized. More flexible: not only means that business protection needs to be more flexible, but also requires more flexibility in system configuration. More energy efficient: It means both energy saving on the transmission platform and innovation in networking.